A scary question, Marion, and one which, as you know only too well, I have answered incorrectly so often as to make me exceedingly gun shy...
I really do not quite understand where "virgin" buyers are coming from to keep these things up. I would think that all those who have made easy money early have taken their chips and gone home, especially after the last slide down to 250. The day traders, yes, are in and out all the time, but they will run for cover quickly if a fire starts. So where is the upward momentum coming from, particularly with all the negative press we have all seen, heard, and read...
If you think about it, there's been no "good news" since Xmas re. YHOO and AMZN for example; just unremitting hype about Super Bowl ads and surrealistic mergers and acquisitions. And yet we serenely motor along...
I have said often around the boards that Brasil will be the catalyst in the next month or two. Few people really comprehend the magnitude of what's happening there, what with the states refusing to fund the federal govt. It doesn't matter what Cardozo and the IMF do if the Brasilian states push the feds into complete bankruptcy...
This could well happen within a month or so, and it will have a severe impact on Wall Street. Obviously, the bank stocks will be most hurt, but this could be the straw that starts the back of the netstocks breaking....
I do not how they're still standing, YHOO still at $38 mil etc. But IMO we are close to the finish line. Maybe not an overnight collapse, but a steady sag through February. YHOO could easily be at $150 by 3/1, for example. But I've been wrong before.... |
