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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (3118)1/31/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
1) Congratulations to Bob on a terrific run on the radio without which I might have been getting clueless type results, and starting this year with another great show. I hope he sticks to the stock market and doesn't try to become a professional blackjack or poker player
2) Looks like he's concerned with the put/call and II sentiment readings as people here expected and as someone also posted he must be concerned with low cash in mutual funds as he has pointed out is in the sentiment part of his model. So what do we have here? We now have valuation and sentiment at extremes suggesting a correction coming but clearly no intermediate or bear market call (unless by a million to one chance an intermediate correction letter shows up in our mailbox). So whether we want to call it asset allocation rebalance or simply taking money off the table the issue is clearly how aggressive someone wants to be in defending against a high likelihood of a correction. This becomes an extremely difficult question since we don't have an idea of the magnitude or time frame such correction would take. I think while Bob's model sees no 20% bear market it is clearly possible to get a correction that could go beyond the 10% level and once again get at least into the mid teens given the increased volatility lately and the factors mentioned above. Also it is easier for a person with money in a deferred account to be more aggressive in taking defensive action than for one taking the tax hit in a personal account. Under these somewhat threatening conditions I think I'll be somewhat aggressive in taking defensive action despite the fact I'm mainly talking personal money

Marc
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