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I could be wrong, but I suspect the 2nd quarter of 1999 will mark the turn around for RAIN. Since RAIN now takes immediate hits for each new restaurant that opens, rather than spreading it out over an entire year, it should be logically obvious that once a new restaurant takes the initial hit, it will be doing better than under the old accounting method for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters because there will be no amortized hit in those quarters. This means that as more and more new restaurants enter their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters under the new accounting method relative to restaurants in their very first quarter, earnings will start to improve. I could be wrong of course, but I suspect that RAIN will turn around its earnings starting in the 2nd quarter, and the stock will shock people by going up significantly. Don't forget, SSS are starting to become more stable (now down just 10%) -- and that was despite bad weather in Chicago and Detroit. Just IMHO. |
