Chip, all, sorry but sent 'mental' stops and exited: selling all
but a measly 200 shares tdfx... exited with profits on
stbi too.. moving out as soon as it touched 8. If I had been
logical, would have sold before earnings but these were shares I intended as 'long'. Of course intentions don't change investment
strategies: once I set a stop, that's that.
Got to say that I have now turned slightly bearish, and can't see
re-entering here without substantial upward movement/momentum,
announced OEM deals, or a more attractive entry position.
The following bothers me here: I along with others vehemently
objected to Banshee coming out without a 2nd TMU, and not
clearly being a Voodoo2 killer. Not to mention the late release
of the product, which clearly should have been out earlier.
Voodoo3 now, is just making Banshee look more and more stillborn,
to me. I don't see future OEM wins with Banshee as the vendors
may well wait for Voodoo3. Consequently, the acquisition of STBI
at this time looks to give a seriously back-end quarter, since they
have to get the merger up and in place before getting V3 established.
Reinforced by no V3 OEM deals being announced at the CC. I also question Creative fully pursuing the Gateway Banshee product beyond
inventory in hand. A logical transition to Gateway of V3 now
appears much more difficult or at least uncertain without guidance.
This looks like two mistakes compounded: if Banshee had been released
earlier, and been released in V3 form, tdfx would have had a carry-over product established to protect profit margins during transition.
Creative could have continued to supply V3 to Gateway as existing
product; tdfx would have no difficulty in continuing supply during
merger of existing product.
Now it appears uncertain as to whether V3 can ramp up as fast
as V2 and/or Banshee fall off. Also, lack of 32 bit color in V3
is another issue showing the age of the architecture... which
would not have been an issue if the product was released earlier
and already established at this time.
I'm also a little miffed by the lack of STBI information given
in the CC. Understanding the limitations of the merger quiet period,
it still is impossible to view the future of the company long
term without knowing complete details. Again, additional uncertainity in the short term if not for the long term. Factor in that the odds
of us hearing of TNT2 news of Permedia3 release in this quarter
complicates the potential strength of V3 as a retail product IMO.
Again, I had previously been concerned that tdfx not lose sight
of the retail niche they established, as others on this board.
My previous position was to buy STBI shares and hold until earnings
and then re-evaluate. Which, I have now done.
Going forward, I'd like to see more complete product roadmaps
released after the merger completes. But, again this has not
been a strong suit of this company and will just have to wait
and see. I like the management of this company, but this quarter
currently looks too uncertain for me.
Waldeen "ISB resignation officially submitted" |
