Arik, [ HERE IT IS... THE CULMINATION OF ALL MY WAVE WORK!!]
If you want to get technical, i have the 5 wave diagonal starting from the globex session Monday (1/25) at around 12:30am. Downside action preceding that seems to be part of the downside zig-zag from the prior Wednesday (1/20).
Here's my best count ever after dozens of hours of refining and perfecting from the very beginning:
1789-Jan. 1973 - Supercycle 1
Jan.1973-Mar. 1980 - Supercycle 2
Mar.1980-Aug. 1997 - Supercycle 3
Aug.1997-Oct. 1998 - Supercycle 4 (Expanded flat)
Oct.1998-Present - Supercycle 5
From the Oct.8th '98 low, I have us completing Cycle wave 1 on Nov. 29th, completed wave A of Cycle wave 2 on Dec. 14th, completed wave B of 2 on Jan. 11th '99, and are currently in wave C of 2. From wave C of 2's 1/11 beginning, wave 1 completed on 1/15, wave a of 2 of C on 1/20, wave b of 2 of C on 1/25, and we're now finishing the ending diagonal wave c of 2 of C, which i believe will end tomorrow. This means we begin wave 3 of C starting from Tuesday's high, and any Wave technician worth his salt knows what to look for when wave 3 of C begins during a blow off expanded flat. POP!!! It's the '87 or '29 type scenario.
But as you can see, once we complete this C of Cycle Wave 2 correction, the count will place us squarely in Cycle Wave 3 of Supercycle Wave 5. This rally will be mammoth!!! Possibly the best and easiest to trade we've ever seen. A straight MAMMOTH SHOT UP!! And it should go for months and months and months.
This big picture count is the only one i can find that works. You MUST begin the big Supercycle Wave 3 in 1980, because Wave 3 can be no more than 7 times the size of wave 1. That is a hard and fast EW Rule that can not be broken to have a valid count. This count's S.S. Wave 1 end has the Dow around 1080 for '73's high, with S.S. Wave 3 beginning from 775. This would allow S.S. wave 3 to travel 7 X 1080 or 7560 pts. Add that to the 775 beginning, and you get 8375 for a maximum travel range for S.S. Wave 3. The Dow peaked at 8340 on August 7th, 1997 !! How about that. Then the world proceded to collapse around us!!
Rightfully so, people like you, Bobby Beara, Mohan, Burke turned very bearish on the market. We had just entered a correction the degree of which had only been seen once in the post 1789 history of the markets. But bullish fundamentals prevented it from being that severe, although the C wave of the correction was the steepest market decline in the history of the markets. From 8/97, We saw wave A complete on 11/14/97, wave B complete on 7/20/98, then wave C complete on 10/8/97. The corrective pattern was an obvious expanded flat. This count works perfectly on the Dow, but you have to be a little more flexible with the SPX because tech stocks blew up the B wave blow off more than one should expect, making it look like something it wasn't.
Well there it is.
I'll be happy to break any parts of S.S. Waves 1 & 3 down if you'd like a closer look.
Regards,
David |
