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Went to the park with the kids, came back and actually did a double take. SFE is now closing in on full internet status. Probably no turning back. A few weeks ago I mentioned Timberland TBL and that it had almost the same chart pattern as SFE lately. Like SFE big breakout on very high volume.[SFE $28-$34 and TBL $36-$43]. It was mentioned that if one sees that chart pattern, the downside risk was minimal for some time, and after consolidation, there was almost always more upside. Earlier today, TBL exploded out of its consolidation up over $5 to over $50 on heavy volume. Hours later, it was SFE's turn. Even if one is not a technician, call up these two charts, and lock that pattern away. It is one of the highest probability patterns you will see. Especially look at the volume co-incident with the breakout move and the volume on the consolidation. Often these moves are not triggered by company news, but as the market discounts, news emerges later. This also points up that one can not simply stick to one indicator. On the 27th., "Sell signal on stochastic. Have doubts about this one." One has to look in the context of a broader view and ask if other forces are at work. They obviously were. Once past the '96 and '98 double top around $46 [very likely], no resistance.[Ie. no one waiting to sell because they have been under water and have been waiting to get out even.] Am convinced that technicals and sentiment will be the only way to gauge and act on SFE now and for a long time. Fundamentals will not predict the next move, just as they have not since the mid twenties. Last May/June, John Arnopp speculated that "Maybe this is a new era?" Early but very prescient. A date to watch is still the day or so before the Vertical Net offering for a peak in optimism, and a potential short term peak in price. Just speculating, will have to watch in real time. For those who are interested in a stock with just as explosive technical action as SFE, but who would feel more comfortable with fundamentals that do apply and appear reasonable, again, check out TBL. Still less than 10 times '99 est. even after a 40% move up. All disclaimers apply. Exciting stuff-especially, if this is the end of a long frustrating almost 2 3/4 yr. trading range. If? Mike |
