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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 235.24

+4.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: klaus pluszynski who wrote (27951)	2/1/1999 5:08:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) of 70976

There does appear to be a correlation between each quarter's SEMI bookings and the same quarter's AMAT revenues, but is there a causal connection? Since the data you showed were during a downtrend and we are now in an uptrend, that is a crucial question. In particular, bookings are a leading indicator, and sales are a trailing one. And it turns out that the correlation between SEMI bookings and the following quarter's AMAT revenues appears to be even stronger. AMAT SEMI AMAT/SEMI (Next Q AMAT)/SEMI 10/98 673 638 1.055 7/98 884 717 1.233 0.939 4/98 1176 1102 1.067 0.802 1/98 1307 1363 0.959 0.863 10/97 1280 1583 0.809 0.826 The average for the four quarters is 0.858. Multiplying that figure by the October SEMI bookings gives us a revenue forecast of 547 million. Let's hope I'm wrong! However, it is my belief that Wall Street is far more interested in bookings than revenues at this point.

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