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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading
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To: LastShadow who wrote (7641)2/1/1999 6:06:00 PM
From: Copeland  Read Replies (1) of 43080
 
I don't know if we're going to crash, but historically we're entering correction time -- the February hang-over after the December-January party.

I thought it was coming a lot earlier than this and I bought my S&P and NDX puts way too early (week after options expiration), but the chance of a major correction is way too likely now:

1. We're in February. Historically, the month of corrections.

2. Earnings season is pretty much over. What do we rally on?

3. Markets are at or approaching all time highs. P/Es are astronomical.

4. Put-call ratio astronomical.

5. Bond crashing; Rate-sensitive utilities selling off big time now, especially after they crashed through the critical 300 level of support.

6. Major leaders in the market-leading sectors (tech and internet), with the exception of Dell, started to sell off.

7. Short covering in gold today.

8. A Fed reserve meeting tomorrow with no chance of easing rates.

9. Superheated GDP report (ala 1987)

10. Superbulls like Bob Brinker forecasting a 10% correction. Other bulls talking about giving their positions "haircuts."

11. Chartcraft bullish sentiment near pre-October 1987 levels.

If there's an exhaustion gap tomorrow, short the hell out of it. I will.


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