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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)
COHU 24.31+1.1%Nov 28 12:59 PM EST
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To: Eric Lee Smith who wrote (1171)2/2/1999 1:25:00 AM
From: KLINVESTOR  Read Replies (2) of 7827
 
Eric,

The cyclical nature of Cohu's business cycle does make it difficult to analyze and predict. There seems to be two factors to focus on when looking at Cohu. First is the underlying demand increases for semi-conductors. Even over the past year when PC sales dropped off the total percentage sales increases were in the low teens thus pushing the demand up for equipment. The only reason equipment sales dropped off dramatically is semiconductor companies got way ahead of themselves in adding capacity 1-2 years ago. Of course the cutbacks were dramatic yet end product demand increases marched along. The point being is the trendline is still fairly strong compared to other businesses. The second comparison point is to look at Cohu and the semi-businesses in general like other commodity/cyclical businesses.

The time to invest is when things look the worst and the time to sell is when things look like they will be great forever. We are only 3-4 months into this recovery and the slump which was stronger than ever preceding this recovery hopefully ensures that this next upward cycle will last more than the 12 months we saw between September 96 and September 97. (2-3 years would be nice) Time will tell. Good luck.
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