Has anyone wondered how long people are willing to wait
(end of this month?) if the IPO is not announced by 2/9?
It's a question that is on everyone's mind as they check
for news of the IPO before the market opens every day.
I don't think that hell is going to break loose immediately
if the announcement isn't on 2/9 right on the dot,
but I would give, maybe a week or two after 2/9,
before people start to question the company's ability to deliver
the IPO soon. But that is only speculation.
Anyway, it is hard to say what's going to happen,
given that we've been in the dark all this time.
Judging by the recent trading sessions,
where we have seen *very* low volume,
people appear to be content with their current positions.
With short interest at <1.8 million shares
and an average volume of 3.8 million,
the short interest of <0.5 days is very low,
which leads me to disagree that there are many shorts out there.
You would only want to short the stock, if the news was already out,
and the stock had made its move and overextended itself to say, $60.
Also, the downside range of the stock would also have to outweigh
the upside range by a lot. NEITHER of these of 2 conditions exist,
which leads me to believe nobody really wants to short this stock
at this price, because the potential of this company is too great.
The historical upside volatility of recent internet-based moves
also makes a short play very unattractive.
I disagree that a move to 25 would can be done
strictly on short covering (you would need at least 2-3 days
of short interest). You need NEW money to flow in,
possibly from institutional buying (at least 5-10 million shares),
to generate a squeeze on the MM's to force a spike
in the stock price, like it did, when it made its move to 27 once.
If there is any kind of leakage from the company on the IPO,
I'd be looking for a spike in buy volume on the day before,
in anticipation of the imminent news.
Many of us are holding our breath right now.
Good luck to everyone! |
