Gordon,
Assuming tonight's Globex low of 1269 holds, we have some hard and fast numbers to work with for the final rally up. Wave rules require this wave 5 Zig-Zag to retrace 80% of today's move down (1290.5 -> 1269). That brings us back up to 1286 minimum. The maximum allowable move for this wave is 47.5 points, because both waves 1 (1/25-3:20am-1222 -> 1/28-9:50am-1269.5) and 3 (1/29-2:50am-1243 -> 2/1-9:55am-1290.50)were 47.5, and wave 5 CAN NOT be larger than both waves 1 & 3. So this would allow wave 5 to run up to as high as 1316.5. However, the preferred larger wave count I'm working requires the all time contract highs NOT be broken on this move higher.
So I plan to play it by ear once we get above 1286, and if we hit the 1295 area, i will close my longs bought tonight at 1271 and step aside. If the all time highs ARE taken out, I will step back in on the next dip in hopes of riding a wave that could send us to as high as 1316.5. Otherwise, I will look to begin agressively shorting weakness below the 1286 area if the pattern appears to be complete.
As for the Tuesday at noon timeframe for a potential end of this wave, i'm going to set that aside for now, as this 5th wave could take a day or two to complete. Right now, i'm more concerned with what happens after the minimum targets are met (1286). Timing will also be aided by watching for a Zig-Zag pattern from the low on either globex tonight or RTH tomorrow. Zig-Zag being an ABC 3 wave pattern, with A being 5 waves, B being any corrective pattern (i.e. zig-zag, flat, triangle), and C being a 5 waver or ending diagonal (which is itself a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern).
When i see it end, i'll post a trade alert.
Regards,
Buddy
P.S. Greed is good, and days off are for wimps!! <g> |
