>> I was under the impression that with all their various partners etc that they would be a difficult target unless management was very willing. <<
Jeff, I think Tokyo Joe is whistling in the wind.
o In the first place, I have little respect for analysts who pretend to present inside/early information -- and I usually discover any factual "tip" info way ahead of their reports, by CAREFULLY reading (and comparing/correlating) the press releases and (especially) the SEC filings.
o But "analyst" Joe has SO many recs on SO many stocks, that he couldn't possibly be doing much more than tipping stocks that show up on volume alerts, and spreading and starting rumors. The current rumor FAD is: The Agouron takeover will lead to a flurry of similar takeovers. What a convenient band wagon for a tipster/hustler!
o Also, perhaps Joe's "re-it" Monday morning was to help his paid subscribers and followers get out.
(BTW, some of them likely got into the warrants, which since the incented exercise at year end are in short supply -- an aspect about which most of the new "investors" have little (if any) knowledge. Let them look it up in the press releases. I won't do their due dilligence ... )
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Ligand a takeover candidate now??
Robinson has always seemed to dream of heading a new Amgen, and has repeatedly -- in every recent press release, 10Q, and interview -- expressed hopes of acquiring other biotechs.
I believe he would be loathe to have Ligand taken over -- especially in this pivotal year, when Targretin for ABC could mark a turning point for the company. And he's got just enough money to get the BASICS through this year. (Panretin / Ontak cash could maybe fund a little acquisition -- but this goal is NOT on Ligand's critical path.)
(On the other hand, I'm uneasy at Elan's steadily growing control over Ligand. Read the 10Qs and filings about the Elan deal.)
Ligand does have poison pill provisions to fend off hostile takeovers.
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I'm observing with amusement all these shenanighans, all these no-data, rumor-driven, wheel-spinning, repetitive, DAILY "predictions" about approvals being "imminent" and "this week" and "in two weeks." (Especially since Dec 1st, the thread has been bogged down with this crystal-ball driven "analysis." If i sound BORED and IRRITATED with it, i AM!)
The JOKE is -- neither of these little items much matters.
They'll happen when they do, the Street knows that, and that knowledge is built into the price ---IMO Only.
Seragen has already produced a commercial quantity of Ontak, and hopefully also lined up buyers for it -- so the delay might not be that bad anyway.
The make or break item is the Phase II Targretin trial for ABC.
o If that goes good (and it likely will), everything else is incidental ---IMO.
o If that goes bad, we're back to the drawing board with a deeper-in-the-pipeline molecule, serious dilution, and a postponement of gratification ---IMO.
On the way to news about that, attention from TokyoMex's crowd could increase the usual price volatility (and our irritability -- especially if we discuss the price to death.) ---imo.
Regards,
Sorry to ramble, Jeff.
I just wish we'd all focus on the important, interesting stuff, and not over-analyze the noise ...
Cheryl |
