Anyone concerned??
BT strengthening it relationship with AT&T wireless properties, SBC purchasing Comcast cellular properties, and Vodafone with ATI... all within the last two weeks. Seems like there could be a chance the music stops and OMPT may not have a chair.
Probably not likely, but definitely making some short-term traders who were looking for that "quick hit" to the 20's by the end of Jan/beginning of Feb a little impatient and nervous. Wonder how the folks on Tim L's "No Hand Holding Thread" are doing??
Strategically, I am having a hard time seeing who will end-up being the suitor. Four telecoms who have been mentioned on this thread (SBC, BT, Vodafone, BEL) all seem to be unlikely IMO. SBC is the only carrier with all three digital standards (TDMA, CDMA, and GSM) and both frequency bands. Practically leveraging any type of national footprint is difficult. BT is closing their ties with AT&T wireless. Vodafone is committed to trying to resolve footprint issue with BEL. BEL is trying to resolve footprint issue with Vodafone.
The only other potentials left are: Bell South, European telco, WWCA, or WCOM. Bell South seems to be committed to southern areas in US and Latin America first which would lead me to believe PTEL, AllTel, or Millicom (strong international wireless properties in Latin America) would be higher on their list. European telcos (TIM, Mannesmann, etc.) would seem to be paying a high price for only a slice (albeit a good slice) of the US market and if they want national are going to have to really pay. WWCA/OMPT are already aligned in some midwest markets and further "strategic alliance" would make sense-but investors probably would be disappointed. Finally, WCOM seems to want the "whole pie" at once (i.e., purchase Nextel or Vodafone) and probably would not want to go piecemeal through the US for GSM properties.
Also, court ruling last week against Bell South to exceed FCC spectrum cap-reduces probability of incumbent providers buying-out OMPT (i.e. SBC, BEL, Bell South, etc.) until 45MHz restriction is lifted.
I have been wrong many times before-but I am struggling to see who the end player will be. I hope we do not have to wait until the PCS re-auctions at the end of March to see if companies such as WCOM, WWCA, Bell South, etc.-tip their hand. It may take a little longer than some would like-but I think patience will be rewarded. |
