Volume 3 * Issue 22-intra * February 2, 1999
DJIA - 9232.41 * Nasdaq - 2460.63*
geocities.com
SPECIAL INTRA-DAY COMMENTARY FEBRUARY 2, 1999
The DOW is down 119.29 points at 9232.41 on what looks to be a heavy volume trading day in the making. The Nasdaq is down 49.46 points at 2460.63 on 465M shares so far. We are only 2-1/2 hours into the trading session with 4 more hours to go. For all the mayhem I see, the SOXX is down 9.17 points at 402.36, down 2.23%.
While I would not go as far as saying "the carnage has begun and the streets are filled with blood", we do have a new game forming. As far as I am concerned, the sky has temporarily fallen and has done 2 very specific things. First, LLT exits have occurred with a majority of the stocks, too numerous to highlight at this time. It is almost as if the traps in the funny movie "Mousetrap" have all gone off at once as I scurried away with the cheese. A great deal of profits have been protected and preserved. Second, and of more significance, it that a number of good opportunities have arisen. We are getting very close to a number of good entry points again, affording us a great opportunity for a second chance or a repeat performance. For those able to read this now , please check out any opportunities you may have regrettably overlooked in the past and wait for a nice bottom to form and then jump aboard.
I need you to consider the following before jumping in:
1. Look at the past issues and see how many analyst comments there were recently in the upgrade columns versus the downgrade columns.
2. Look at which stocks were being highlighted and by which organizations (major vs minor).
3. Keep in mind the comments I listed last night from Bret Hodess about the valuations of some of these stocks.
4. Think about how much ahead of the curve we were in most of these stocks allowing exits even now at nice profits.
5. See how wrong the analysts were with their untimely comments and determine if you think it was a pump and dump for these institutions.
6. Find your list of top prospects that have interested you in the past but you failed to act on.
7. Look for new bottoms and entry prices for these stocks and for the stocks that were sold off via LLTs you might have put in place.
8. DO NOT PANIC - this is cyclical and should have been expected since this might be the Tech Sector Blow Of Top and Correction.
9. We saw a great deal of the warning signs as they were discussed here and should have been prepared for this.
Good Luck to everyone and be careful, "It's a Jungle Out There" even though we prepared for this and RadarViewâ has acted like a nagging parent about protecting profits and having LLTs in place over the past week.
The end result of all this is a preservation of profits that would have eroded in the 15%-20% range for some of these stocks and the ability to play this major volatility cycle for some nice gains and re-entries at very attractive prices.
As a quick glance, the following stocks need to be watched for second opportunities over the next few hours or days.
ASMLF - look for bottom and hopefully below $40.
ASYT - we are there and this looks to be a gift. Any move to the positive should trigger serious entry thoughts.
ATMI - watch for the bottom and take advantage of the opportunity.
CYCH - watch for bottom
CYMI - executed perfection at its best. Even with the flowering on line commentary, we did well to relinquish some shares and to bail out prior to the collapse when the LLT was violated. Back in at $24 for a partial position and will add throughout the day. BTW, for all the good news, this was just another Buy on Mystery and Sell on History situation.
DPMI - I should have let the LLT go yesterday but manually sold off today and will wait for a bottom.
ERICY - caught up in the sell off today but should reverse as money starts to flow in from NOKa.
IPEC - very very attractive at this price and we must be on the lookout for any improvement in percentage of IPEC to SFAM discount.
KLAC - under $50 should be seriously considered.
MIPS - in BUY ZONE right now. Look for bottom.
PAIR - under $10 makes this attractive again.
PLAB - At $23.50 I have a market order in for purchase (very rarely do I put a market order in)
RMBS - bucks the trend and is a shining light in all this red ink.
WAVX - still performing well and is up more than $1.
WFR - I was putting money to work here and in CFMT and am getting paid back real well here.
The sky has not fallen but the trees to not grow to the stratosphere. Again, Good Luck and thank goodness for LLTs and K-Mart "Blue Light Specials"
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