DW, SUNW stock is very predictable if you've owned it for awhile.
SUNW will do nothing for a long long time- just when you're about to give up - It moves fast and furious.
When earnings come around, the stock will once again move up dramatically. And no matter what they report (usually 1 0r 2 cents better than expected), the stock will fall about 10% in the days following the announcement. Then SUNW will flood the business wires with upcoming meetings and conferences to introduce some "new technology" or a "breakthrough", or some "significant partnership agreement". This once again will drive the stock up a few points. Once the conference, meeting, etc, etc, is over, the stock falls back down again. Then it labors and labors and moves sideways, or even worse, down. When the market is up, it will gap up at the open then fall to its lows at the end. When the market is down, it will get crushed with it. Then come the 144 filings. "why are the insiders selling???".... a few hundred thousand shares gets passed to the public, a mini panic will erupt and it'll go down another 10%. Then we wait for earnings again, there'll be a huge run up, about a week or two before and the cycle repeats itself. Sometimes, the stock won't move for 3, 6, even 9 months. But when you look at a full fiscal year, SUNW will get you about a 30% return every year. You swore it always closed at it's lows and would never participate in the rallys, but lo and behold, there's your return- Last year had a greater than usual run! but it was to make up for Oct 1997- Oct 1998 which gave us a sub par performance. But for the last 14 + quarters, SUNW has missed earnings once- that is consistency. And when you're most frustrated, to the brink of calling SCott McNealy himself, that is the time to buy- we havent hit that point yet, but we will-------
Owning SUNW is a Love/Hate Relationship, but in the end, you usually love it. |
