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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD
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To: 007 who wrote (7120)2/2/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (2) of 14427
 
crash is just getting started, my friend. There are bounces along the way both intraday and on a closing basis. Don't be fooled. The most pockets will be cleaned on the way down... this will be the hardest for many to deal w/. In fact, it is very bearish for the UTIL for instance that it is trying to rally so soon after the decline has begun. You can tell the decline has run its course once we close on the lows several days in a row. Gaps down are nice too. Same works for the DOW too. The fact that eager buyers were tripping overthemselves to buy already today means this decline is just beginning.

I'll tell you what I think is probable and then what I think there's an outside chance of, but am hoping for:

More than likely we sell off to DOW 8400 relatively soon then bounce real convincingly for a week or so... Then crash sometime in late Feb or early March. (this is the scenario I am positioned for plus a little fudge room)

What I'd like to see is a crash straight from the current levels accompanied by a bond mkt crash as well.

of course, I still love gold and see it crashing up soon. More than likely it will simply gap up one morning across the downtrend and never see these levels again for a long time. Look for the bond to continue to tank. where she stops... nobody knows. My guess is 7%

I continue to hate all credit card co's and think they're a steal of a short at current levels... KRB, PVN, AFS, etc.

-Lucretius
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