Intel Investors - Dataquest has finally figured out what we figured out 6 months ago - the Year 2000 bug may be really good for Semiconductor sales & Upgrades.
Paul
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semibiznews.com
A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted 11:30 a.m./8:30 a.m., PST, 2/2/99
Year 2000 bug might be good
for chip sales, says Dataquest
SAN JOSE--The much discussed threat of a Year 2000 software bug
will help give chip sales a shot in the arm early in the second half of
1999, according to Dataquest here today.
The market research firm said it now expects worldwide chip revenues
to grow 15% to $154.5 billion in 1999 after last year's 8.4% decline to
$134.8 billion, according to a recently revised estimate. Firming DRAM
prices and "protective ordering" by chip buyers worried about the Y2K
problem will help drive semiconductor sales higher in the final two
quarters this year, according to Dataquest analysts.
"The third quarter of 1999 should bring good semiconductor growth --
helped in part by 'protective ordering' in advance of potential year 2000
problems -- followed by a strong fourth quarter of 1999," said Ron Bohn,
director for Dataquest's Worldwide Semiconductor Research
Operations.
Semiconductor growth, as measured in dollar revenues, will also get a
boost from a stronger Japanese yen exchange rate and firming of
DRAM prices in the second half of 1999, said Joseph Byrne, senior
semiconductor industry analyst at Dataquest.
In a forecast presented last month at the Industry Strategy Symposium
(ISS) in Pebble Beach, Calif., Dataquest predicted that DRAM revenues
would rebound with a 30% increase to $31.8 billion vs. $18.5 billion in
1998. In the year 2000, DRAM sales will surge 72% to $31.8 billion,
according to the forecast.
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