Paul, Re: ""The third quarter of 1999 should bring good semiconductor growth --
helped in part by 'protective ordering' in advance of potential year 2000
problems -- followed by a strong fourth quarter of 1999," said Ron Bohn,
director for Dataquest's Worldwide Semiconductor Research
Operations."
This is similar to what I was thinking about Y2K, and prompted me to post to the AMAT thread in response to Brian K. over there about Sun Micro saying their 2H was looking better than 1H. Anyway, what I wrote:
To: Brian Kerecz (27950 )
From: Tony Viola
Monday, Feb 1 1999 4:47PM ET
Reply # of 27990
Brian, I like that too, not because I own any Sunw, bummer, but
because they are the first computer, network, the computer is the
network or whatever they call themselves today company to come
out with good news about the second half. Not that I've seen that
much negative about 2H directly from companies (except IBM),
compared with the first, but there is a "model" running around that
Y2K is driving higher sales in the first half, and that there will be
somewhat of a freeze in the second. Model says companies will
get their Y2K compliance hardware and software in place by
September or something, and then hold their breath into 2000. I
have my own half baked theory that, because companies and
countries around the world will start preparing for Y2K at all
different times, there will be a random effect that will make
computer, storage, network hardware, software etc. sales higher
for the whole year (and into next). Maybe by the time the whole
silly thing settles out in 2001, or something, it'll be time for the
next round of upgrades. Merced will be out then, then McKinley.
Anyway, good for Sun.
Tony
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