Ken--Yes, I too wonder why seemingly intelligent people sit in their little sandboxes and refuse to contemplate larger scenarios that involve global markets, national security, public health and a host of other issues that will be affected by y2k. I think that on some level they in fact have done this. The problem is they don't much like the scenarios that could develop. That's why we never hear a discussion from some of the posters re: global linkages in finance, manufacturing or trade. Just trite little observations about the situation in their IT departments, their water provider, or the status of any given "urban legend."
For most individuals any systemic breakdown in these systems violates the way in which they believe the world works. Their belief systems become "too challenged" for further analysis. In other words they simply get "too scared" to think it all through much further beyond where the fear factor stopped them cold. That's when cognitive dissonance forces them to sputter "Do you think they are stupid?"...Well, of course not!" Thus, harmony is resorted and they can get out of bed and eat their cornflakes.
I hope were eating crow too. Assuming the grid stays up and mostly reliable, industries reorganize, ramp up, and retool to provide those products that we now obtain from abroad, commodities transportation isn't too botched-up...(...shall I go on?...) the US will be just fine. (I realize there is a lot of wishful thinking here. If anyone can tell me just how "wishful" it is I'm sure that person is in fact you.) Even in this scenario I see a brutal lingering depression and double digit unemployment.
Again those pesky global linkages loom large:
boston.com
"flatsville" |
