Contrary to what the Rent has said, I have many posts over the past 6 months that have flatly stated that I felt Seachange would have a piece of the VOD pie. Not that I have any good technical reasons, but based on their inroads into the cable industry and their PR effort to the cables, they will get business. Also, if CCUR is expected to get 20 percent market share in this segment, than somebody else has to have the other 80 percent! That could be Sun, that could be one of the many names I have mentioned in the past. What matters to me is that CCUR has a seat at the table with a good product and near first to market position.
Unlike Rent, I have done more than read CCUR's web site to learn about their technology (this is how he accounts for his 100 stream limitation claims which were BS). I talk to industry folks, sometimes engineers and CTO's. I have seen the CCUR server in action, watched it tested and had the chance to ask CCUR engineers about their technology and competitors technology. It should be no mystery that I was extremely impressed and after my follow up work, I became quite a bull on this stock. Not following trends in the technology or industry is fatal. I am not that foolish. My information is different than the Rents and I believe more correct. By the way, he also forgets his assertion that the cables were moving toward an NT solution for VOD and that would hurt CCUR.
If he knew anything about the matter, he would post what percentage of servers currently in use by the cable industry are NT based versus Unix. My assertion with Rent is that he posts all kinds of predictions about CCUR competitors having advantages over them or technology that will hurt them in time. He then uses the fact that the rollout is taking longer to say he is right, thus he must be right about everything he has said. I have a long post from some months past on REnt. I would suggest reading it for those who think he is credible.
Now back to business. SEAC came in with higher revenue with most of it coming from their digital ad business which saw a big pick up from last quarter. Analyst from Alex Brown has taken down his estimates for SEAC in 1999. He lowered expected revenue from 95 million to 85.6 million for the coming year. He also revised his earnings prediction from a profit of .26 cents per share to a loss of .01 cents per share. Not something I would get up and cheer about as a shareholder of SEAC.
My last thought after spending a few minutes viewing the Yahoo thread is this. Why is CCUR under attack by so many posters on that thread and from time to time here? Their is no short/long battle going on because the short position has never exceeded 100,000 shares. Their are no put options on the company. This means that the only people who have a motive to trash this company either A) own SEAC stock, B) own Diva bonds, C) work for or consult on of CCUR's competitors. I believe it is a combination of A and C. As Rent has told us before, he is in the process of developing the CCUR killer VOD server. He is in the C camp, but I wouldn't rule out A. As for the people on Yahoo, I have no clue. Of course, their is the traders who buy when it is low and then try to hype the stock, then when they sell out try to bash it so they can buy in lower. I hate to say it, but I think that works because people are just so uncertain about this company.
I and others placed a very large bet on this company based on their VOD potential and the untapped RT potential. At the time, CCUR's name had never been mentioned in any publication or by any industry source as a potential player in VOD. The only person saying it was Corky. Also, nobody was considering CCUR a potential player in the embedded systems area and Real Time OS software. In just over 18 months this company has made amazing headway and they deserve credit. The market is just starting to reward shareholders for their long term investment. I expect a number north of $10.
Damn, I said I wouldn't post long ramblings about TM and his BS. This is addictive. I hope the conference call clears this up. Trudging through BS is exhausting. |
