The 10-K's a real snore, trust me. The major new news I recall has been reported on a couple of boards, namely the video portal.
I'm not sure that the video portal is not a red herring because it seems somewhat inconsistent with their business model. Since they want to be the video server of their content to the world, they really don't want to be in competition with the portals that might link to them.
My guess is that the video portal is a shrewd financial move rather than a product strategy one. The market hype is on companies whose names and business plans end in .com, meaning a snazzy web site. By launching their own portal they'll get some hype, the stock price can do a broadcast.com rerun (guess you'd call that a "re-broadcast" ... but I'll still plan to tune in). Afterwards VDAT can quietly go back doing deals to serve video to the major portals, even though to do so they may have to agree to scale back their own portal efforts. Or if they're wildly successful then they can change their business model - but I think others like BCST will be difficult to beat in that market, and I prefer VDAT's model anyway.
I would also conjecture that VDAT management is struggling with the timing and sequencing of several planned announcements, and this is causing delays. If they have some of the deals up their sleeves that I suspect they do, these (together with the PR, of course), will determine whether the stock price in six months is 30 or 120. Stern has just come on board as their PR advisor, and if he's good then he's probably torn apart some of their pre-existing plans and thrown a monkey wrench into the works. Selman and Saperstein will listen to him, even if it means making us wait.
My thinking on why it's so complex: think about everything they have either done but not announced (or at least not really announced), and the other things that are either likely from the facts, or strongly rumored. First they have the warrant call (or alternative next-round financing, but the street will tell them to call the warrants first); an outside investment (strong, repeated, and fairly detailed rumor, although who knows what the details might be); a portal launch; official announcement of a "name" PR firm; and official announcement of the new COO. Then as soon as they've done those or most of those, I expect there will be coverage announcements. Finally, a move toward a stronger street relationship than Coleman & Co. could be tied to the warrant call, coverage, and a future secondary offering. Now let's see, what order should we announce all these things in to maximize shareholder value, taking into account not only market momentum but all the interrelationships?
Like you, I have time. I've been waiting since May 1996, so I guess I can wait a little longer - or even a lot longer. But if the train isn't leaving the station, I think I do hear its whistle blowing. We shouldn't have to wait a lot longer.
Would be interested in your thoughts on the above.
Cheers,
dr |
