TO THE BOARD: Thanks to all for the generous comments following my "communique" yesterday. This forum is more forgiving of personal outbursts than I would have thought possible, especially considering the diversity of views it encompasses; thank you for the invitation to remain an active member - it's gladly accepted. I don't know what else to say, except to post some information...
As the board knows, J.P. Morgan analyst Marc Crossman initiated coverage of Globalstar with a "buy" rating today, Iridium with a "market performer" rating and ICO with a "long-term buy" rating. Crossman was with Prudential Securities prior to moving to J.P. Morgan, and his recommendations for Globalstar and Iridium are, I believe, simply reiterations of his opinion while at Pru. I won't recapitulate what was said in the reports, since they contain information already posted to, or well known by, the board, but I will offer some information given to me by a contact at Iridium which may not have been previously noted here.
First, Marc Crossman, according to my contact, has never been "Iridium-friendly", and he currently estimates only 250,000 subscribers by year-end 1999 for the company, or roughly half that which he says the company expects. I questioned Iridium about the 500,000-600,000 figure generally attributed to them, and was told they expected more than that; when I asked "how much more?", I was told "a lot" more. Is there something Crossman and the street do not know? We can only hope.
I was also told that Marc Crossman has indicated his rating for Iridium would go to a "buy" when they reached 50,000 subscribers, and I assume this figure would have to be achieved quite soon to trigger that upgrade, since 50,000 at year end would be a MAJOR disappointment. I have not gotten confirmation that this is his actual statement on the subject, so this must be treated as "second hand" information, though the source has yet to give me false information. What I do know is that he believes the stock market has valued Iridium as though the 1999 year-end subscriber level will be 250,000-300,000; the implication being that, should the number exceed this level, an upward re-valuation of the stock would occur. In his words: "In short, we believe Iridium could exceed our 2000 target if it successfully builds their subscriber base." (Crossman's 2000 target is $47, which is too low in my opinion.
Thanks again for your comments: Djane, Valueman, Jim Parkinson, Dennis Duke, Jeff Vayda, Chris Considine, Rocket Scientist, Raymond Duray. A high class group of people...with a high pain tolerance - how else is your presence in the satellite stocks to be explained?<ggg> |
