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Well folks, Slider et al wins this round. My EW count for immediate new lows was wrong!. take a bow Slider, come on down!!---So, for anyone who is remotely still interested in EW (ahem!), I'll lay out here where I think we are-which is no man's land at the moment. the bottom line is that now things could go either way.----Scenario 1: We finished today or are very soon to finish the E wave of a long descending triangle in the OSX, after which a new low will follow. WAVE A from the Sept 1st low of 47ish went up to 73 on Nov 9 in an irregular abc fashion where the b slightly undercut the a. WAVE B retraced back to 47ish on Dec 4.Then WAVE C failed at 62 on Jan 8 and WAVE D failed on the downside, stopping at 48ish on Jan 29. Finally we have WAVE E in progress, which under elliott can stop almost anytime but below 62. The E is the final sequence in the Triangle and completes the overall formation going back to Sept 1st. Next would be a continuation of the decline to the low 40's-----Scenario 2: The final low on the OSX was seen on Dec22 when the downwave printed 5 little waves but failed by a smidgen to take out the earlier low. This would be called a Fifth Wave Failure in ew terminolgy. From Dec 22, we then did 5 little waves up to 62 for Wave 1 of a new Bull Market. Wave 2's are usually deep and this time almost retraced the entire Wave 1 but bottomed last fri above it. Now we would be in the early stages of Wave 3 up, a monster wave.------Frankly, folks, I don't have a material preference between these 2 Scenarios. Either could unfold with about equal liklihood. I will say that some of individual osx stocks that printed new lows the last few days now seem complete on the downside and a new bull could commence in these. RDC for eg comes to mind. FGI may be another, although l last blip down might be in the offing (don't know yet).PDE may be a third (but it too might or might not blip to the high 5's first). Bottom line, this rally may either abort very soon or be the start of something much bigger than the Dec/early jan rally. The jury is still out. ---I'm continuing to hold VTS,FGI and RDC and I bought PDE this morning in the rush to jump on trains not yet leaving the station. -----When I look at the oil price, again 2 Scenarios come to mind. Scenario 1 is that we ended a triangle Wave 4 today and we will now or very soon start to embark on a final wave 5 down to a new low. Scenario 2 is that we hold above this morning's low, then blip up to just over 12.95 , then drop below 11.85 then base above 11 and take off again strongly to the upside not looking back. Either of these 2 scenarios could occur as well. So, in effect, Scenario 1 of the OSX might marry up with Scenario 1 of March crude and the same thin vice versa with Scenario 2------At this point, I don't really have a clue as to which Scenario will win out!! Meantime i am holding 4 issues and waiting and watching.----maybe the fund selling VTS today is a scenario 1 type (vbg). |
