John, I disagree that the only thing that matters is P.O.s.
If you recall, the stock has gone over $10 multiple times without P.O.s! If it goes to $12 this time without a PO, you will wish you had bought back in by now.
If, for example, they announce a joint venture with IBM or Microsoft to build a factory, wouldn't that matter? If they announce that Valence will supply the batteries for the Army's OICWs that replace the M16 rifles, wouldn't that matter? If they announce that Valence batteries will be used in the most demanding and critical military and hi-tech applications imaginable, wouldn't that matter?
If they announce a license agreement worth $100s of millions in royalties in future years, wouldn't that matter?
If positive articles appear in major financial publications with analyst recommendations, wouldn't that matter?
As I recall, Your company CEO/ Chairman Bert Roberts recently bought shares without a P.O., and ex CFO Dave Archibald reportedly increased his position without a P.O. Maybe they have knowledge and confidence that eclipses yours and knowledge that eclipes mine!
You also have the ULBI example. They were first to accept a P.O. and didn't perform. Valence is taking time to be sure, increasing staff and building inventory with two production lines. Did you load up on ULBI at $15 (now in the 5's) when they announced their P.O.? Would it have been a good bet if that was your only criteria?
If your only criteria is P.O.'s, wait for such an announcement and invest then. You may have to pay $15 a share, but if that's your criteria, go for it!
Good Luck & Regards from FMK! |
