Jenna, my statement was out of frustration and not to place blame. I examined charts of both CREE and MACR prior to entering. Of course I am probably not experienced enough to notice everything a chart might be saying. And CREE now appears to be coming back. But I feel the need to explain a few things, like my "DD".
CREE was off its recent high when I purchased it, and just below overbought on the stochastic. As we both know, a stock can remain overbought for some time. The MACD was above the signal, but was messed up a day later when alot of fears came out about Brazil. It opened down 12-13 points that day, but came all the way back. I thought that showed great strength, but it put the MACD crossing below the signal, messing up the technicals only temporarily I hoped.
You are right, CREE was my pick, off of a master earnings date list from your site. In message 21987, it received very bullish comments from you, even though you did say you were less enthusiastic about it, but still were, and you did recognize the strength it showed the day before and said it might be good for 5 to 10 points on a good earnings report. I certainly did not take that as a guarantee, but since I was already in it, it made me feel better about it, since it was down from its recent high. But just as support and resistance deals with memory of prices, I kept remembering that statement. In message 21992, it was effectively given "watch list status", although it did not actually appear on a daily watch list. As you have often said, many good tips are offered in the thread.
Those messages were posted on the 13th late in the evening. The next morning(14th), CREE gapped up above my entry point, and I might have sold if not for the idea of 5 to 10 points in my memory. The next day after earnings it gapped way down and continued its descent.
MACR on the day I bought, it shows the fast stoch line crossing above the slow line. Some use that as a buy signal. And the stoch was down around 30, not overbought, unless my charts program needs finer tuning. It was also down from its recent high. For me, that means potential to return to the high on good news. The MACD was below the signal line, but it had recently turned toward it some. And your statements about it seemed so confident, saying things about going out on a limb for this one. Those statements of confidence offer alot of hope, and most of us put faith in your statements.
The day earnings reported MACR actually was up, but began to dump a little towards the end of the day and bigtime the next day. I could have sold, but didn't because of the confidence you gave it, and in a later message, you said something about it should punch through resistance at around 37 and sailing on to 40 and beyond. That and the fact that it didn't quickly dump, and no strange news like CREE's secondary offering, made me hold. But I believe it is a good company and that it will return. I see no reason to sell and take the loss.
Strong buys were still in effect for both stocks, in fact, recently reiterated for MACR. The whisper number showed good expectations. I could find no negative news. I don't know what more DD I could do research wise without a crystal ball. I must get into using protective stops, but CREE gapped down so much the first morning after earnings it wouldn't have helped. The fact that it had a secondary offering gave some reason to it. MACR just doesn't make sense to me. But then there is no science to this. But I did all the DD I usually do. But I don't pour through annual reports looking for one little thing to be wrong.
I understand that you recommend not holding through earnings. But so many stocks do well right after earnings. I was in BMCS recently (my own pick) and it shot right up, got 8 1/2 points out of it. One you mentioned, PEGS, up 4 1/2 today, is right back at its high. When I look at its chart through yesterday, I saw the stochastic around 70, nearing overbought, very little volume lately, and the MACD below and parallel to the signal with no sign of turning, and off its recent highs. And its had quite a run up the last few months. I figured with that little interest lately, it might not even budge, yet it did. Course, I have no room to get into anything else right now.
Again, I did not mean to place blame, although it may sound that way. MACR was dumping wildly, I was in a state of temporary panic I guess and needed to vent somewhere. Other than me, where can I vent but where I found the stocks. I can't be in but very few stocks at a time, and at the moment I am completely stuck. Everything is down and I can't do a thing. But all are good companies and I am sure they will come back. It is just the waiting is difficult and frustrating.
I apologize. Please forgive. |
