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Technology Stocks : 3-d Systems (TDSC)
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To: Stratajema who wrote (21)2/4/1997 2:44:00 PM
From: Brian VanHiel   of 132
 
David-

I disagree with your accuracy numbers. I know they came straight off of the respective web pages, but the statement "Models can be produced..." is meaningless. How long did it take that part to build? Actua is also capable of building very accurate parts at the sacrafice of speed (it has a 300dpi print head, and the positioning system can't be that shoddy either). This is why head to head comparisons are difficult to make. Every machine has it's own set of variables in which any one can be optimized at the expense of the others. I think that the Actua has less of a trade-off (see my post above re:speed).

I'm not surprised at SSYS's growth. It's initial products were worthless (I saw them demo'd about 2 years ago). Now that they have a useful machine I would expect sales to increase x10. What I don't see is enough to support a p/e ratio of 90!

Improvements in FDM materials will not make much of a difference. FDM has already reached the 'no longer fragile' state. No matter what material they pump through the extrusion head it still isn't going to have the same properties as production part. If you really want materials you need to go to rapid tooling. Once Actua reaches the 'no longer fragile' state then FDM will fade into memory. This may not happen for a couple of years but it will happen. If SSYS wants to survive then it needs an entirely new technology. The chase is on and I don't think SSYS has the head-start you think.

Customers are getting smarter. If they really understand their own needs then FDM's market share will shrink. If the market itself were not growing so fast I would short SSYS.

-Brian
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