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Gold/Mining/Energy : JDS Fitel

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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (694)2/3/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 815
 
Hi David,
I decided to respond to your concern about valuations. Undoubtedly
the market in general is at nosebleed P/E multiples. If there is a
general meltdown I'm sure JDS will be impacted. However in the
present constellation of telecosm stocks I'm following, JDS appears
to be slightly less richly valued than many of these other listed
stocks. I should also mention that I have excluded 9 companies in my
watch list which are not profitable at this point (GBLX LVLT MFNX CY
GIC IIXC IRIDF NN QWST). My observation would be that only MSFT has
stronger financial ratios with JDS as a stand alone company. The
merger would appear to have an immediate detrimental effect on
ratios. However, I am sanguine that the JDS/UNPH marriage will result
in a "critical mass" that will good growth and respectable profits.
And no, 75% growth is not sustainable. I'd settle for 30% at a PE/G
of 2.5 and be able to maintain a PE of 75.

P/E PE/G Profit Margin (ttm)
jds.to 77 ~1 22%+or-
amat 78 5 7%
amcc 51 2 20%
brcm 165 3 17%
csco 119 4 17
dell 114 5? 8
lu 51 2? 3.2
msft 71 2 36
pfe 90 5 17
tlab 40 2 24
unph NM NM -41
vtss 70 2 30

Best, Ray
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