Badger, how are things going to play out just before and after earnings are announced? There's so much hype on this company, that its hard to separate fact from fiction. Based on IDC and Dataquest reports, this should be a blow-out quarter not only for Dell but for the other box makers as well. First Call has the quarter's estimate at 31 cents. Based on Dell's history I certainly believe they will beat the 31 cents. The question is...by how much? Also, will the number satisfy the MM's whisper number. If not, its trouble time. Then we have all the other estimates to beat, sales growth, market share, inventory turns, etc. If any of these estimates aren't meet, again its trouble. Add in the expectations for a stock split. No split, could mean trouble. I could go on and on, but I'm sure you get my message.
I guess the real problem is Dell is their own worst emeny. They keep setting the bar so high that there is no margin for error. The question I must ask, is how long can this go on? Wish I had the answer, but I don't. One way to play this stock is the way Michael Dell and his team play it. That is, on a schedule basis, they keep taking money off the table by selling their stock. Not a bad idea. After all, what's wrong with taking profits and relying on stock splits to replace your stocks. Buying on dips is not a bad idea either. Of course, it would be nice to have options like Dell and the others have.
At this moment, my tendency is to sit tight through earnings and afterwards. However, I want to see how the stock acts next week before I make up my mind.
Stock Bull |
