Less effective die shrinks might worsen potential DRAM shortage
A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted 9 a.m./6 a.m., PST, 2/4/99
Less effective die shrinks might
worsen potential DRAM shortage
By Will Wade
SAN FRANCISCO--With unit shipments now increasing faster than new DRAM capacity, a memory shortage could occur by next year, warned a semiconductor analyst from NationsBanc Montgomery Securities during the company's technology conference here.
The shortfall of supply and demand will be exacerbated by less effective die shrinks and a dwindling pool of DRAM vendors worldwide, predicted analyst Jonathan Joseph.
Speaking at the NationsBanc Montgomery Securities Technology Week Conference, Joseph noted that several memory vendors have either cut their production levels, or exited the market altogether in the past year. While this has cut down the worldwide DRAM capacity, overall bit demand is continuing to swell, and the overcapacity situation that plagued the sector throughout 1998 is likely to be offset within the next 12 months.
Another factor is the current generation of die shrinks. While previous shrinks have had led to a significant gain in die-per-wafer, Joseph noted that some Montgomery studies have indicated that the move from 0.25-micron technology to 0.21-micron manufacturing is currently yielding only 40% more memory bits per wafer. This is not enough to offset the bit demand which is running at more than 80% annually, and increasing.
"It will be pretty interesting by the end of 1999," he said. "And we could enter a DRAM shortage in 2000."
Along with the memory vendors, Joseph also predicted significant growth over the next few years in the microprocessor and digital signal processor markets, as the periodic silicon cycle is starting to swing back in favor of the chip makers.
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