GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold

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To: out_of_the_loop who wrote (193)	2/4/1999 1:08:00 PM
From: Iceberg	Read Replies (1) of 5582

To all: I just got off the phone with Dr. Hensley... I called to inquire about the "manuscript in progress" as indicated at the Zicam web site. As best I can recollect, here's what he said about the study... They conducted a double-blind study with a placebo. FYI, for those who may wonder what a double-blind study is, here's what it means... courses.hscbklyn.edu He said there were 67 patients, and that they tested 2 concentrations and looked at 10 different symptoms. He indicated the results showed a reduction of cold symptoms from 12 days down to 1 1/2 days. I asked him what the statistical significance of their study was. He said the p-value from their study was P < 0.001. My understanding of p-values is that this means that the probability of their results happening by chance alone was less than 1 in 1000. To put that into context, I think it's generally recognized that p-values of P < 0.05 are acceptable to most observers. Certainly, p-values of P < 0.01 are considered acceptable. So a p-value of P < 0.001 is as statistically significant as can possibly be expected. However... I didn't get into how their study was designed. The design of the study and the statistical methods they used would obviously have much to do with the study's credibility. Dr. Hensley said the study is currently being peer-reviewed, and will then be submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine - one of the most respected medical journals in the world. Whether or not the study gets accepted for publication, and when, seems to be an open question at the present time. My subjective impression from our short conversation was that they seem to think they've done a legitimate study, and that it deserves consideration for publication in the New England Journal of Medicine. I hope I've not misrepresented anything in the above report. If so, I would appreciate anyone making corrections as might be appropriate. Ice

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