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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.865

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10:37 AM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1469)	2/4/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Quincy	Read Replies (2) of 34857

Aren't you reinforcing the importance of being able to guarantee a revenue flow from the 3G investment? "W-CDMA is something for which operators are showing an active interest." Hmmm. I remember intense fascination with MUSE HDTV ten years ago. There's a research investment that failed miserably to reach the consumer. Europe and China share a domestic priority of resolving their call congestion we keep hearing about. W-CDMA is expected to solve the problem with claims of 400x AMPS. ISDN and other technologies can take care of their demand for inexpensive internet access. Is the provider and consumer investment on WCDMA resembling a Jaguar XJS in the garage for the simple task of reaching the grocery store? Is WCDMA going to have a considerable performance edge to reward the consumer for his investment? An Asynchronous pilot? Jaguars have wonderful features and performance that justify their cost. Will you be as proud of WCDMA five years down the road? What if I just want to make a voice call? GPRS, HSCSD, and IS95B share the same feature; to be able to leverage existing infastructure and spectrum for the simple purpose of providing faster data transfer. Chances are, if the network can handle the added load, providers will be happy to provide the feature to increase their revenue stream. But, these 2.5G solutions share the same problem: after multiplying the call channels used by one consumer, how are providers able to guarantee a call can still get through? If W-CDMA succeeds, it will be due to the following features: o handset cost, performance and size that compete with existing TDMA/GSM o completely eradicates the GSM call congestion problem. o adequate coverage. o Competitive monthly bills from providers. Geek appeal does not translate to Universal appeal. Universal appeal sells enough phones to justify the infastructure and spectrum investment. This won't be an all-or-nothing contest but it had better be two out of four and showing progress.

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