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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear?
XOMA 26.06+0.3%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Cacaito who wrote (8629)2/4/1999 3:56:00 PM
From: aknahow  Read Replies (2) of 17367
 
Cacaito, I am doing a poor job of explaining what I do not understand.

Integrilin prevent heart attacks in 1.5% fewer patients than the standard treatment. Took 17,000 subjects in trials to prove this with a sufficient level of confidence for the FDA. Just for this example lets say there was a 95% level of confidence that 1.5% fewer heart attacks would result by using the drug.

Now take some other drug that in a smaller trial appears to reduce mortality by 40%. However because the number of subjects was small the confidence that it really does so is only 50%

Again my question is why not choose to use the drug? It may be a coin toss but if it does work chances of surviving are greatly increased. Or 40% probability of reduced mortality multiplied by 50% probability it works at all still give me 20% probability something good will happen. That seems better than being certain of a 1.5% proven chance of improvement.

BTW loved this from the famous CurleyJack post.

"Management seriously considered ending the mennig. trial at the end of December."

CJ sure know how to post. When I said there was a target for mortality, I was trying to share information with readers of this board. In return there were 47 post saying this can't be true. Yes, 18 were from Bob but some were from others better known to you.<g>
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