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Technology Stocks : AMERica on-Line, Another over valued company?
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To: damniseedemons who wrote (70)5/7/1996 7:46:00 PM
From: olduser   of 222
 
I continue to believe the company is not over valued, and if you compare it to other companies with some similar potential, you would logically believe that either they are way over valued (relative to AOL) or AOL is under valued.
I posted 10 days ago that I was long, and was going to buy options to make money on the earnings announcement. I ended up getting June 60 options and have doubled my investment (as of tonight). If tommorrow mornings earnings announcement is positive (which I expect), you can expect another round of analyst upgrades, earning estimate increases, and stock price increases over the next 10 days. Given Alex Brown just reiterated its strong buy ("the best investment idea we have") and set relatively low earnings expectations and subscriber count expectations, I think it is very likely the actual announcement will be greeted as good news.
Try valuing the company on subscriber counts (a la cable TV outfits), network capabilities (a la UUnet for instance), growth of advertising and other revenue streams (see yesterday's announcement of travel agency agreement in the Chronicle), or on several other parameters and , especially if you value the components of the company, this is an undervalued company with great prospects.

Short it at your own risk. Before you do, make sure you really understand all the aspects of the company and its revenue streams.

Keith Garner
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