Hi Sir,
Then again, you may see it differently. You are exhibiting observations that may go beyond standard TA? You seem open to viewing your decisions from a number of different perspectives.
I'm not a TA guy though I tried it 5 years back or so. I was very bad at it. I still remember the fundamentals of it. I got some nice statistical insight into it at B-school and read a bit of research about market efficiency in its three forms (written by one of the leaders : Roland Gillet).
My approach to issues is multi-disciplinary (history, philosophy, economics, sociology, physics,...), a bit like Soros. And based on experience. This does not mean I'm sometimes right. In fact my timing is usually close to a disaster. When I 'call' a movement right it's luck and nothing else, I guess, or at least a substantial part of it.
DELL is no different. I am now considering getting back in, but not yet.
My philosophy is a 'realistic' one : get to the core : future cash flows is what make the community tick and nothing else. Though, if you find a gem and nobody knows about it because it's too small, forget about it. Do not fight trends. The market is always right. If momentum goes after DELL, be in DELL. If it goes out (it always does at one point), get out. Look for signs of loss of momentum. The big issue is fundamentals and trends do not always match with respect to a particular stock. A one point a stock is undervalued, at another it's the other way around.
I also saw Scott Black on CNBC yesterday. I tend to agree with him albeit not from a short term point of view. Markets have booms and busts and we (the hi-techs) need a small bust before we can continue higher.
BTW I really like reading your posts. They make me think and I learn from them.
Regards,
Jerome |
