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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR

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To: Mr. Twister who wrote (6300)	2/4/1999 4:48:00 PM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Read Replies (1) of 27722

There was almost no volume on that takedown from 19 1/2 to 19. They were just trying to dramatize the weak close. The more legit price would have been 19 1/2. The news with TGLO should help offset worry about the close. Don't know if we'll gap up or down: probably more or less neutral. After-hours prints are mostly ranging from 19 3/8 to 20 in relatively heavy activity, for what it's worth. The solid volume between 19 1/2 and 22 is a good sign, I think. There were some 2.5-2.7 million shares bought in that range today, which is a substantial portion of the float and therefore a good step toward basing at this level. (Daily volume reflects double-counting of shares, according to Nasdaq practice.) NAVR didn't fare too badly on an extraordinarily weak day for the Nasdaq and especially the tech sector. The pros were angling for a meltdown all day. First thing I heard this a.m. on CNBC was some analyst saying that the Nifty Fifty would sell off heavily. At the close, there was a Merrill Lynch analyst predicting a 50-100 percent retracement toward October 8 lows: expects Dow to hit 7500-8500. A big CNBC story all day was another analyst (I think Morgan Stanley) who cut back the stock allocation in his model portfolio to 50 percent. It's hard to tell without analysis what all of this will really mean, but it sounds to me like the pros want to put some of their sidelined cash to work: induce panic selling to get some good buy-in prices. I hope we get down to October 8 levels again: what a great place to buy and enjoy another rally. It's just a matter of being patient on the way down. NAVR, as an "event" stock at this point, should be relatively immune to these broader market forces for at least a while longer. The mania in the e-brokerages shows that rampant speculation is still alive and well among the trader crowd: let's hope it comes this way!

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