3Com Corporation (COMS) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS)

COMS 0.00130

-18.8%

Nov 7 11:47 AM EST

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To: hitesh puri who wrote (27635)	2/4/1999 5:25:00 PM
From: Tim McGee	Read Replies (2) of 45548

I've looked for a reason for this downturn for the past 3 days. Haven't found a major long term factor that changes anything. Seems like fear leading to technical havoc in the stock. We may have hit near bottom here. The last part of today's fall was the momentum from NAZ being hammered. There may be a little more here to go. But this is accumulate time. If the NAZ doesn't fall apart we'll be back to the 40s relatively soon - not a bad time buy shares or to sell some puts. We've been thru this several quarters in a row after CSCO announces or some other rumor COM$ tanks for a while. Even assuming that there is some real weakness in the quarter (assume .02c lower than estimates) does not warrant the kind of reaction we've seen - given that future qtrs are unlikely to be affected. The following bad pieces of news just don't add up to much. Tech Data Price erosion retail slowdown CSCO claimed mkt share gains Price erosion was build into COM$ forcasts, more retail (tech data) sales are likely shifting to different channels such as on-line and OEM. CSCO always says that they are hammering COM$ - this is suspicious. An Intel/AnalogDevices announcement for DSP chips was more threatening than any of this news and I don't think the street is savvy enough to understand this. The NN results are concerning, but the only news that would be unsettling would be if COM$ were considering buying FORE or NN, or a breakup of the Siemans alliance. Nothing recently has been proven that upsets the long term picture here. Tim

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