This just in . . . updates from San Francisco. Overheard at Montgomery conference
[No GSTRF reference, but interesting CDMA/cell phone projections]
cbs.marketwatch.com
By CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:16 PM ET Feb 4, 1999
Qualcomm's (QCOM) chief financial officer, Tony Thornley, said the
code-division multiple access wireless market has a "very bright future"
that will benefit his company. Qualcomm develops CDMA technology,
including phones and chips, for the cellular wireless industry. Growth in
Japan, Thornley said, should jump from 300,000 subscribers in 1998 to
3 million in 1999. The market for CDMA technology is expected to be
hot, but analysts have questioned whether Qualcomm's handset business
can compete with giants like Motorola (MOT) and Nokia (NOK.A).
With a current shortage of handsets, "we don't see the competition as a
problem," Thornley told an audience at the NationsBanc
Montgomery Securities tech conference. "But certainly in the future
we see that as a major factor."
Motorola's (MOT) personal-communications sector president, Fred
Kuznik, said the company's key growth areas in 1999 will be in Europe
and in digital cellular. He predicted European growth of 50 percent over
the year. In an animated NationsBanc Montgomery Securities tech
conference speech peppered with witty remarks, Kuznik predicted the
cellular industry in 1999 will grow to 215 million units from 155 million
units in 1998. Analog's portion of the market will fall to 6 percent in
1999 from 16 percent in 1998, according to Motorola's projections. In
addition, the company has set up four research centers worldwide to get
input from product users. The company is also working on jumping into
the retail arena. As an example, Kuznik said, Motorola is looking into
developing retail kiosks. The company, he said, will have further
announcements regarding its retail plans throughout the year.
Still on the telecom front, a quartet of cell-phone companies said at a
conference luncheon that wireless phones will become a lot more than
phone. One hundred and sixty million cell phones were sold last year,
and they are getting increasingly sophisticated. Look for "personalized
phones for everyone, but in a mass market," said Fred Kuznik, the head
of Motorola's personal-communications division. Cell phoners in
Europe put a premium on the display of numbers, while Asian users
value a certain length and weight, he added. Bo Dimert, who heads
Ericsson USA (ERICY), said he expects cell phoners to be able to set
up "user profiles" that customize phone operations. In the future, there
will be "different devices for different needs," said Kari-Pekka Wilska,
the president of the mobile phones unit at Nokia. An executive, for
instance, might have a "business phone" in addition to a cell phone for
playtime.
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