SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: FMK who wrote (62)2/4/1997 7:26:00 PM
From: gvander   of 27311
 
Read this carefully . . .

Every so often on a thread like this one you are going to attract the attention of someone who knows the industry very well. That said, I am only going to participate in this once -- here are just a few thing that I think have been over looked:

1. Valence clearly states that it does not expect to even begin volume production until 1998 -- you overlooked the fact that its competitors will begin producing commercial volumes in 1997 and have been operating pilot production lines since 1995 (Valence plans to start "prototype production" in 1997).

2. Valence has never produced commercial quantities of anything -- you may want to look at their 10-K a little closer "To date, the Company has been unable to produce commercially-viable prototype batteries, based on its new technology"

3. I am being kind in not commenting on this next issue -- Reputation:

Read this case before anything.

IN re VALENCE TECHNOLOGY SECURITIES LITIGATION
No. C 94-1542-SC
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF
CALIFORNIA
1995 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 10379; Fed. Sec. L. Rep. (CCH) P98,793
May 8, 1995, Decided
May 8, 1995, FILED, ENTERED

4. Also, there are at least 15 other licensees of the basic bellcore technology since 1994 who have been working to improve it since then. Valence just got the license in 1996 and has made no improvements. You may also want to think about who has the most favorable licensing terms -- I doubt it is Valence given the fact that it procured the license after the industry recognized the value of such a battery.

5. Even with the order from the Army Valence is selling at 120 times sales

My main point in this is to suggest that it is clearly too early to be making production estimates like the ones in this thread -- I remember the same type of "production estimates" being touted when AERN was at $9 dollars -- there were fundamental flaws in the AERN bulls' arguments also, but instead of learning the industry better they became hostile. Needless to say AER now trades between 2 and 3. This industry is fundamentally attractive and there will be a company that leads the lithium battery industry but it will probably not be Valence --
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News