Earlie,
We always seem to cross swords over the silliest things, and I don't mean this in any disparaging way.:-)
...but you have a problem with apples and oranges when you criticize my comments by saying:
The company did not earn any dollars, it reported a loss.
Of course they earned dollars...every cent of it.<g> They just didn't earn enough to show a profit...big difference. Now they also didn't categorize the earnings properly and it was wrong, but, it did NOT change the bottom line which still beat all estimates...and....They still earned the same number of dollars.
Also it really is a moot point to dwell on these issues since MU recently announced that they are ahead of schedule with TXN upgrades AND bit growth is increasing more than expected while they are rapidly reducing bit cost. These are the facts that MU followers should be concerned with.
As far as TXN fab upgrades costing $1 billion I was of the understanding that the upgrade to .21 would be $500 million but if you could show me your source I would greatly appreciate it. Now you have to remember something very important here and that is if their cost to produce 64mb chips is down to $6 (and I thought is was currently $7) that is a full $4 gain per chip...astounding!!!
As far as ANALists constantly reducing numbers so the companies can meet them on earnings day....well what can I say....that is their job...and if the companies come within a few cents then they did their job. Think about it. The result is the stock gradually drops or moves up based on the analysts input as opposed to drastic choppy movements ( which sometimes still occurs<g>)
Now as far as PC revenue being positive or negative is important but not the primary statistic to measure MU demand (and I am excluding any discussion on MUEI) What is important is bit growth rate... this is MU's meat and potatoes. They see 35% vs 25% per quarter which is much more than we knew last week. Now this is borne out of the need for systems with larger memory which is growing by a power of 2 every year. Systems today are typically shipping with 64mbytes and by the end of the year will be 128megabytes. Also existing systems of 8, 16, 32 are all fertile ground for the upgrade business.
I am now more bullish on MU today than yesterday based on these latest changes and NOW of the opinion that we may not see MU drop down to 60 before moving back up to break the triple top. I think we are almost there now.
Does MU belong in the single digits based on current fundamentals...absolutely not...sheer dreaming, fantasizing, or just delusionary.<ggg> There is significant market share, low cost production and high demand for MU right now that they will finally be showing a positive cash flow next quarter and the rest of the year.
Regards,
DavidG |
