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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 695.40+0.5%4:00 PM EST
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To: fedhead who wrote (19686)2/4/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Clint E.  Read Replies (1) of 70359
 
Anindo, sorry about your stocks. I cannot see why your stocks wouldn't come back. They always have.

>>>Whats your take on the market ? Was today a head fake or or the beginning of something serious.

De-ja vu! Two weeks ago, after MSFT reported earnings we sold off severely on the Thurs. and modestly on the Friday after. We went from 2475 to ~2305. Remember?

Considering all the bad news(TK/INTC/AMD/COMS/LU + FOMC) that hit the "technology stocks" today, the selloff appears normal as of tonight. In the last two days, we have had an early peek into March's pre-announcement season, thanks to two of my least-liked companies: AMD+COMS. In the last hour of trading, AMD's news and the anxiety over tomorrow's unemployment data made things even worse otherwise we would have closed around 2440.

There is not enough data to draw any solid conclusion yet. From our past experience with this kind of selloff two weeks ago and given the positives that are still in the market, I think the worst-case scenario is return to a trading range market. I expect higher lows compared to two weeks ago, possibly 2350 with the worse-case low at 2300. I really don't expect to see 2300 or below unless we get some major bad news.

Again, there is not enough data yet. I don't think this is anything serious. Need to wait and see the action in the next two days + the reaction to tomorrow's unemployment data.

Later;

Clint
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