Petz - YOU Love these calculation scenarios !
Here's a good one you did - remember this one?
Remember what the results ACTUALLY WERE ?
Paul
{====================================}
To: Paul Engel (32681 )
From: John Petzinger
Sep 26 1997 9:22PM EST
Reply #32981 of 34149
Paul, Re: "they could lose money on every K6 they sell"
8" wafers 31400 sq mm, 162mm die size = 194 die/wafer
80% useable die vs theoretically possible die = 155 die
At 40% yield = 62 die (I have on good authority that current yield
is above this)
AT 84% back end yield = 52 shippable die
Average selling price $160 = $8,320 revenue per wafer
Packaging costs = $20*62=$1,240
Wafer cost = $2300
Gross profit per wafer = $4,780
At 3000 wafers/week = total of 2,028,000 K6's in quarter (the
predicted minimum)
Now, to estimate the fixed costs, AMD's revenue per wafer for the
3rd quarter was 26 shippable die * $200 ASP = $5,200 or gross
profit per wafer of 5200-620-2300= $2,280.
Total gross profit for 3rd quarter=13 weeks *3000 wafers *
$2,280/wafer = $ 88.9M. Since quarter will have had a slight loss,
fixed costs must be about $90M, this includes all the expenses
that ate up AMD's profit, such as ramp up costs.
Now, go back to Q4 with $4,780/wafer * 13 weeks * 3000
wafers/week, this gives gross 4Q profit of $186,420,000. Subtract
the $90M fixed costs and net profit is $96,420,000. Also subtract
an additional $10M for higher Dresden fab costs and $10M for
higher advertising and we're left with a $76M profit or 0.36/share post tax.
Petz |
