Good Evening All,
THROUGH MY ROSE TINTED GLASSES
The DOW INDUSTRIALS closed down 62.31 points or .67%, but still up 23.17 points or .25% from last week. The TRANSPORTS closed up 21.8 points or .68% and up 168.81 points or 5.48% for the week. The UTILITIES closed down 3.66 points or 1.24% and down 11.9 points or 3.92% from one week ago. The S&P 500 closed down 23.58 points or 1.85% and the NAZ was down 83.34 points at 3.34% and down 67.27 points or 2.72% for the week.
OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD (OB/OS)
This is a daily calculated OB/OS indicator spliced together with masking tape and my understanding of how Birinyi calculates his. It uses a 50 DEMA and looks back one year at the highest and lowest, as a percent, that a stock or index has traded above or below its 50 DEMA. Thus, creating a so called range of OB/OS. (Also listed are a few moving averages.)
50 OVER OVER
INDEX CLOSE BOTTOM DEMA TOP SOLD BOUGHT
DJIA 9304.50 7809.86 9155.80 10051.8 0.00% 16.59%
DJTA 3247.14 2452.84 3095.85 3523.51 0.00% 35.38%
DJUA 291.29 286.72 305.22 337.33 75.32% 0.00%
NYSE 591.05 498.67 582.81 628.03 0.00% 18.22%
S&P 1248.49 1044.12 1214.81 1323.44 0.00% 31.00%
NAZ 2410.07 1767.21 2225.12 2611.98 0.00% 47.81%
52 52
WEEK WEEK 5 13 40 50
INDEX LOW HIGH CLOSE DEMA DEMA DEMA DEMA
DJIA 7379.70 9759.44 9304.50 9314.97 9304.44 9207.21 9155.80
DJTA 2260.24 3735.38 3247.14 3213.28 3179.03 3117.01 3095.85
DJUA 260.89 323.65 291.29 295.84 300.63 305.05 305.22
NYSE 462.69 612.20 591.05 594.43 593.75 586.49 582.81
S&P 923.32 1283.75 1248.49 1260.38 1255.33 1226.44 1214.81
NAZ 1343.87 2533.44 2410.07 2454.02 2423.56 2273.07 2225.12
TONIGHT'S CHART
I keep two different box size point and figure hand charts on the DJUA. It amazes me how this chart, over many years, is such a good leading indicator of the DJIA. It's tops and bottoms are ahead from weeks to months.
Here's a portion of the DJUA using a 2 X 6 box system (2 points per box, and a 3 box reversal requirement).
322 X
320 X O
318 X O
316 X O X *
314 X O X O X *
312 X O X O X X O *
310 X O X O X O C O * < Unofficial Bearish Res Line
308 A O X O X O X 1 X
306 X O X O X O X O X O
304 X O X O X B O O X O
302 X O X O X O X * O O
300 X O O X O X * O < Double Bottom Sell Signal
298 X * O O * 2
296 X * * O
294 X * O
292 X * O * < Bearish Support Line
290 X * + < Official Bullish Support Line
288 X * +
286 X * +
284 X + *
282 X + *
280 X + *
278 X + * < Bearish Support Line
276 X +
274 X +
272 X +
270 +
Two double bottom sell signals in a row and no support from the Bearish Support Line at 294. Could also be considered a descending triple bottom sell signal (the bottom O at 304, the next bottom O at 302 and then last column when it hit 300).
This chart is long term bullish (trading above the Bullish Support Line) and short term bearish (on a sell signal). Today's action placed an O right on the Bullish Support Line at 292. If it drops to 290, then it will penetrate the "Official" Bullish Support Line, and the "Unofficial" Bearish Resistance Line will become "Official". This would change the chart to long term bearish. (Fact is, the Bearish Resistance Line is clearly in charge right now.) Of more importance, this Bullish Support Line has not been penetrated in years.
The first vertical price objective is 314-((6*2)*2)=290, and the second vertical price objective is 314-((6*3)*2)=278.
A few of our most important indicators as follows:
02/02/99 01/26/99
% NYSE > 10 Week MA 39.81 42.48 Bear Confirmed
% OPTs > 10 Week MA 43.1 43.8 Bear Confirmed
% NYSE > 30 Week MA 43.33 44.85 Bear Confirmed
NYSE Bullish % 50.0 52.0 Bear Confirmed
OPT Stks Bullish % 56.0 59.1 Bear Confirmed
NYSE High Low Index 46.1 49.2
As I live and die by my P&F charts, I'm now long term bearish and short term bearish, and trade/invest accordingly.
Take care,
Eric |
