Very nice. Very nice indeed. Closing above 100 today would be fine, but of course, hitting 103+ would be preferrable. Would set a very nice stage for next week. Very bullish, when you look at the chart for the last month (not that I am a TA guy, but rather a SWAG afficionado... scientific wild assed guesses, backed up by common sense). Look at the chart and you see cyclic, predicable up/downturns. You could have made a small fortune buying calls on the dips and selling them at the tops. Now, we are in for at least one more upturn. We have soared from 90 to 108 (110 intraday) in the last week and a half. We dipped, almost right on schedule. We bounced off of 96, very predictably. We are pushing above 101, and, if we close the day above 102 or even 103, we are primed for an upturn to earnings. Michael Dell gets a Goldman Sachs stage on Tuesday. Remember, that it was a Goldman Sachs client that started the latest powerful move from 95 to 108 when that client apparently bought 1 million shares after dumping CPQ last Thus (that way my buy signal... or it may have been a million CPQ shares sold). I like the fact that we have had a solid NASDAQ shakeout. Everyone can say that the NAS does not go straight up. Fine. But, DELL is going to close in the vicinity of 102 1/2 today. And then it is going to hit 111 next week. The last two times it split it was at 113 and 109...
Here's the update from the optioninvestor newsletter (www.optioninvestor.com... highly recommended... there's your plug, Jim)
From Tuesday's update, "Dell is still subject to pullbacks on a down day". No kidding.
Dell, the fourth largest weighted company on the NASDAQ 100, got hit hard during the "Generals' Retreat"
following Tom Kurlack's attack on chip stocks which served as an excuse for the broad-based tech sell-off. Dell, on a
run to earnings scheduled February 16, could get a rumored 2:1 split announcement. Dell's price for its previous 2
splits was $113.19 on the February 18, 1998 announcement, and $109.50 on the August 18, 1998 announcement.
The chances of another announcement increase as the price approaches $110. Split or no split, earnings should
be great given Microsoft's and Intel's forward looking comments. Still, we caution not to take a position until the
market reverses. The company's still great, but no stock will survive a broad-based retreat. Confirm market direction
first, then load up the truck suitable to your risk profile.
By the way, that "load up the truck" phrase is a signal that the newsletter only gives on rare occasions. This is going to be a nice run next week! |
