All, let me try and capture an overall picture here: tell me where I am off base, if I am. first, the ITU wants digital (CDMA). second, the ITU as well as some cell-phone carriers, such as VODAPHONE, are pushing for one 3G std as opposed to more than one, if this is possible. third, there is an ongoing dispute concerning the actual technical configuration of the CDMA with W-CDMA (Ericson) and CDMA- 2000 (Qualcom) being the two main players in this. fourth, CDMA-2000, because of it's lower chip-rate, is much more compatible with existing systems and therefore would not require much of an outlay of new infrastructure, or whatever, in order for a carrier to go digital. fifth, the european union wants GSM, an existing analog system, to be 3G, and they are willing to try and block out at least Qualcom, being an american company, if they have to. sixth, Qualcom has many CDMA patents, and it appears that they would prevail in a licensing dispute between any other CDMA providers. seven, many cellphone carriers around the world have expressed their desire for CDMA, and the biggest of them all now, Vodaphone, wants it to be the only standard for 3G, enabling them to be able to take advantage of a much higher level of seamless transmission world-wide, including true global-roaming capabilities. eight, there are mergers and joint ventures taking place that are changing the political, as well as market conditions almost on a daily basis now, that will ultimately affect the outcome of the 3G battle, the acceleration of growth of the cellphone industry world-wide. NINE, with digital around the corner, the advantages of being in touch with the internet by cellphone anywhere on the planet makes possible even further growth in a very large way. TEN, the cost of transmission using digital is much less, as well as much clearer than all other cellular technologies.
What then will be the outcome of all this? It appears by reading many of these incredibly informative posts on this thread, that the outcome would look like this: there would be more than one 3G standard after all is said and done, and digital will make up a large part of the total. the digital component of 3G will need to be as compatible as possible with as many existing technologies as possible so that capital expenditures by companies not presently using CDMA will be low as possible. the internet will play a large part very quickly since the technology is already available to do so. in a relatively short time digital will be certain to overtake all other technologies for all of the obvious reasons as well as many more that have not been though of yet. If we can say that the answer is ultimately the most compatible CDMA, then how can that not be qualcom's CDMA-2000, especially since qualcom has it's technology in place, up and running now for a few years, and no one else can demonstrate this? what am I missing here, if anything?
EDWIN K |
