James, I already know about gilead. If by backdooring a drug for non-approved indications in aids patients, yes it happens all the time if some study shows some result. But gilead could not promote it for an indication not approved, but docs could do it on their own.
Yes lidakol does compare favorably to zovirex (phase 3 in europe). Most of the other stuff will be on hold until the new US phas 3 results show something up or down. Trials for the other indications might as well be on hold until the cold sore study is in. Also, I would think antisense for shingles would go faster since shingles can be so debilitating and therefore, life threatening, so a hidden risk of an antisense drug would not be as much of a concern. Concentrating on the cold sore market makes sense to me. I did not know of a joint venture with chiron. There was a license agreement with some company that gave back the rights which I take as a negative. I think that their european partner is still there and is supportive.
I never thought much of the protective stuff against aids. It probably does reduce risk, but does not eliminate risk. Not a big enough market and high legal risk. Other compounds also reduce risk.
I don't know much about the warrents except that I believe that they are awarded to insiders. Extending the warrants I take as a positive. Phase 3 results are due summer 1997. It does seem fair to extend them because the FDA apparently dictated to the company what placebo to use and if the results had not been "probably" tainted by an active placebo, the warrents would have been worth something.
I know this is a high risk speculation, but so is the best of the biotechs. This one is higher, but it has a compelling story. My experience is that this kind of misfortune in research is typical. If the story explaining the prior phase 3 results, and the data released is not cooked, then I think the chances are high that the new study will be very good. One may have a different perspective, and that's ok with me, you might be right. |
