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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.08

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: John Pitera who wrote (5525)	2/5/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (6) of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ======================================= As previously noted, my SHORT-TERM indicators are saying that that there are only about 1-3 more days of downside. There are also other signals implying that that the downside price targets may be limited, and that the next important support around 9100 may hold. I just heard on CNBC that Jerry Favors feelsng that there will be a strong move to the upside next week next week. My short-term analysis is limited to turnaround points but can not forcast the size of the move. LG, previously, has mentioned that there is a BULLISH WEDGE. If this WEDGE is broken to the upside it would imply a significant move to the upside. For the longer term Im bearish, but I will not discount the possibility that the market can run up one more time. Once I get a CLASS 1 BUY signal on the NAZ, I will be going long for a short-term trading position. We could get a CLASS 1 BUY signal as early as MONDAY with the BUY-in at TUEs lows. Interest rates have been moving up and has just set a higher-high on a closing basis. This implies further weakness down the road since it is producing higher highs and higher lows. However, per my short-term technicals the interest rates are in the the extreme overbought range and should be heading down soon, which should give a boost to the stock market around the same time. Bearish positions should take caution. For the long term I am still bearish, but for the short-term I expect an upswing to start around TUE/WED/THUR of next week. If it breaks LG's WEDGE significantly, this forthcoming upswing could be a strong one. My analysis is not aimed at price target, so I need to ask the E-WAVERs and anyone else - what could be a possible limit to the next upside move. Seeya

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