Why no upgrades at 13 but upgrades now at 24:
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The CIEN Story (from the former BaltimoreFundMgr)/Start
by: BFMX (46/M) 38848 of 38936
On the advise of one of the posters, I have shortened my handle in the hope of avoiding confusion from inevitable imposters. First, an explanation:
My intention in resigning from the Board was not in anger at those that cleverly sought to usurp my name; rather, as it became clear that readers were being used and manipulated by imposters, it measurably increased the risk of financial harm to those believing the nonsense posted by the imposters. I felt it better to retire the handle than risk further damage.
The lack of feedback from the board also made it questionable whether anyone beside the imposters read my notes. I now realize I was wrong. I will be more than happy to share with this board insights from the institutional world, with the proviso that posts will be less frequent (time constraints)and, but for this post, I will refrain from expressing my opinion on CIEN.
Our view (we are indeed a significant holder, among the top 20 listed in Spectrum) is that with business at CIEN having stablized, the equity is in the midst of a revaluation by first the buy side (which are institutional investors), thereafter the sell side (which are analysts that publish). It is a typical pattern in which more adept investors, who are not loaded with the luggage of written opinions, nimbly trade stock well before the Street (the sell side)changes its opinion. What you have witnessed these past two months is the first leg in the resurrection of a stock, caused by those closest to the industry. Ironically, it takes a rising equity price before the Street becomes comfortable in recommending an equity.
As the Street becomes more positive (and it started today, with Cowan slapping a Strong Buy on CIEN), the equity begins a second leg. These are not straight line moves; there will be "profit-taking" and other interruptions, but as any technician can tell from looking at the charts, CIEN is in an upswing. What the technicians never realize is that the phenomena I just described, and not some abstract head and shoulders formation, is what often drives equitities. Again, it is caused first by institutional buying (suggesting improving fundamentals)followed by the leming analysts.
In CIEN's case, there is an increasing likelihood of major new customer wins, faster than expected deployments in Pan European networks, stable pricing, component cost reduction, widening margins, and increasing revenue and earnings visibility.
Continued Under "End"
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