Rick,
In between the garbage at Yahoo, the most recent post was by someone stating that hears from S&N a timeframe of 2001, with very slow dermagraft trial progression. It would be more interesting to hear more about this one way or the other, as 90 patients with all of the centers going doesn't sound like it should take all that long(vs 90 with control).
Arrow predicts the final patient concluding the 12th week by 5/99, but obviously ATIS would have to be enrolling fairly rapidly, with the last person getting started by march '99. Arrow also sees the data collection and analysis concluding by 8/99 with submission to the FDA by 9/99, general dates mentioned by ATIS in past conversations as likely timeframes in my conversations. He thinks another advisory panel is unlikely given that one that recommended already occurred(all of this sounded much like many of our previous conversations over here).
Arrow also spoke of the then 3.25 share price reflecting a greater discount than the risk level justified(then market cap of @120 mill). Given the non-neverending cash supply, he felt that profitability and viability were much dependent on DG, with near-term volatility likely. His key in the survival game was getting past the next 2 years and the approaching cash flow problem(assuming there isn't a new source of income, such as product approval).
Other key points: -he felt the convertible preferred at the below 3.60 range would likely result in @8 mill. new shares( I see this number a bit on the low side, barring some near-term price jumps).
- 2.5 years of cash without any new product revenues(second half '01).
- the GERN stem cell discoveries and the association with potential future ATIS claims to future products given the patents held.
In addition, in a section pointing to companies with more diversification vs. those with 70% of present value of future cash flows from a single product, from our wound healing sector we have ATIS, IART, and GENZL in the former, and LIFC, ORG and ORTC in the latter.
I don't work or even have an account with Wedbush at this point, but I thus far still see A. Arrow as being practically the only analyst with a really good fundamental feel for the industry. The rest will start to pile up the buys or sells likely based on what news comes out in the 3Q.
Most of the article was a pretty good general overview, and leads me to believe that maybe we have done our homework around here periodically, even though this doesn't reduce the dermagraft study variable (risk). Arrow didn't include any mention of the possible effects of potential new strategic alliances. It would be interesting to confirm, although this is likely not feasible, exactly how rapidly the study is progressing thus far.
Time to hit the sack.
Regards,
Marshall |
