'Another good posting at CBN News Y2K Insights...
cbn.org
CBN News Y2K Insights
February 5, 1999
Bruce Webster's Response To The Initial Report Of Secretary Glickman's Testimony On The Food Supply
(Bruce Webster-Washington DC Year 2000 Group)
After the first AP wire story came out this morning about Agriculture Secretary Glickman's testimony on Y2K and the food
supply, Bruce Webster, co-founder of the Washington DC Year 2000
Group sent out this e-mail. He gave me permission to reproduce it
here.
Drew Parkhill
An AP wire item this morning led with the following paragraph:
"Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman says it is unlikely the Year 2000 computer problem will cause widespread food shortages,
partly because few U.S. farmers use high-tech systems that might
be susceptible."
I would like to see Sec'y Glickman's entire testimony, but the nature of the article makes it appear that this is his major
focus. If so, then I am left with some concern about his grasp of
the problem for at least three reasons. First, the statistics
cited don't distinguish between the total # of farmers and which
farms (e.g., agribusiness) produce the majority of food (and
which are more likely to be automated). Second, the use of
high-tech systems by US farmers isn't a big concern anyway, since
many (if not most) will have a few months to get things fixed
before spring plantings occur. Third, the news item (which may
unfairly condense Sec'y Glickman's testimony) does little to
address the following areas of concern (cited in my book, pp.
216-217):
* Production and delivery of agricultural chemicals, including fertilizers and pesticides
* Production and delivery of hybrid seeds
* Production, delivery, and operation of farm equipment, including spare parts, fuel, and lubricants
* Computer and embedded systems control of irrigation systems and storage facilities
* Interruption of power, water, natural gas, phone, or other services to farms, food processing companies, warehousing firms,
and grocery stores
* Difficulty of farmers getting loans due to banks' own Y2K problems as well a general recession
* Interruptions and delays in transportation systems, especially trains
* The whole spectrum of Y2K problems within food processing firms, especially embedded systems within the food processing
equipment
* Y2K problems in transportation, communication, and storage in the food warehousing and grocery store network
This list alone should be enough to underscore that the possibility of Y2K-induced shortages and/or price hikes at the
local supermarket isn't far-fetched. We see such shortages and
price jumps now when bad weather or natural disasters impacts
crops, when food producers renegotiate prices, or when labor
disputes disrupt the normal grocery supply chain. There's no
reason why Y2K's impact should be any different.
Sec'y Glickman does appear to concede that Y2K problems outside the US (e.g., South America) could impact the availablity of
fresh fruits and vegetables during the winter months. What he
doesn't appear to address is the impact of those same
problems--in all the forms listed above--on global food
production and what the rest of the world will need to eat in
2000, and how that will impact the US as well.
My personal opinion is that food shortages within the US will not be serious and will probably be somewhat random. My concern with
Sec'y Glickman's testimony is that he apparently focuses on a
relatively minor and irrelevant aspect (how many farmers use
computer systems) and does not seriously address the broad
spectrum of more likely and serious Y2K issues with domestic and
global food production. This suggests that he either doesn't
understand them or is avoiding them.
I also find it interesting to see the quote about "needless and frivolous stockpiling of supplies" in light of recommendations
from FEMA and the Red Cross about Y2K emergency preparedness,
including food storage. As someone who personally has had to live
off of "stockpiled supplies" both due to natural disasters (the
Loma Prieta quake in 1989) and extended underemployment while
shifting careers (back in 1988-89), I find nothing needless or
frivolous about it as a standing approach to personal and family
preparedness, much less when facing some of the unaddressed
uncertainties about Y2K. It just makes sense. ..bruce..
[Bruce F. Webster is Co-chair of the Washington D.C. Year 2000 Group and has testified three times before Congress on the Y2K
issue. His testimony and the list of Y2K food issues above can be
found in _The Y2K Survival Guide: Getting To, Getting Through,
and Getting Past the Year 2000 Problems_ (Prentice-Hall, 1999,
ISBN 0-13-021496-5). Webster is Chief Technical Officer of Object
Systems Group and is based out of Dallas, TX.]
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