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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 113.22

-0.5%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (27810)	2/6/1999 6:31:00 AM
From: John Hunt	Read Replies (3) of 116837

Y2K - My Humble Perspective Hi bobby, I think the Y2K problem is somewhere between a major inconvenience and a disaster. The best forecasts seem to indicate that 10-15 % of companies will not be ready by Jan 1, 2000, and I think many of them will cease to exist. The problem is one of linkage in the supply chain ... If you have 5 companies each with a Y2K compliance probability of .98, then unless I can't do the math correctly, the probability that there will be no problem is .98 x .98 x .98 x .98 x .98 = .90 and the more suppliers, the higher the failure rate. Companies that do a lot of outsourcing (ie GM) are particularly vulnerable. Also, Asia and the middle east are very far behind. IMHO, Y2K panic will make gold and oil move and I would sure hate to be in the grocery business in the first quarter of 2000 < g > . BWDIK. John PS - Believe it or not, I do try to post 'good Y2K news' also - ie working airline scheduling systems yesterday. :-))

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